The Day Ahead: ADP Employment, New Home Sales, and ISM Services

Yesterday

– Data-free day proved frustrating for MBS

– Despite Treasury Improvements, MBS lost ground

– Lenders repriced in the afternoon, rates at or near 2-mo+ highs

– Several potential problems ‘ganging-up’ on MBS, some will expire by Friday

Today

– Biggest collection of economic data this week

– ADP Employment leads off at 8:15.  Somewhat of a proxy for NFP.  Highly Important

– ISM non-manufacturing and New Home Sales at 10am, both important

– Trade Gap at 8:30am. Not as important

Strategy

MBS are having a bad few weeks since FOMC Minutes reignited a PORTION of tapering possibilities in December.  We say “portion” because it’s not as if the FOMC Minutes magically put create better than a 50% chance that the Fed moves to reduce asset purchases this month.  But if the remaining data this week is decidedly strong, and especially if Friday’s NFP is exceptionally strong, a December taper suddenly wouldn’t seem out of the question.

In that sense, there is an awful lot potentially riding on the upcoming data.  Of course Friday is the big day, but today has the power to start the lead-off in one direction or the other.  Unfortunately, unless ADP Employment suggests a massive NFP whiff, bond markets won’t be overly eager to jump on a big rally when NFP might easily suggest a move in the other direction.

Every indication we have from yesterday’s data-free trading is that bond markets will take their directional cues today from the data.  With that in mind, ADP and ISM are the two biggies-in order.  In a different league, but still relevant, is New Home Sales at 10am.

Charts

Technicals in Treasuries still leave room for a move weaker, though momentum definitely took a break.  Econ data likely makes the decision.

 

2013-12-3+tsy

Here’s a quick look at MBS’ extended pout session since FOMC Minutes.  So even if 10’s are holding their ground, MBS might not be.

2013-12-3+com

 

MBS  Live Econ Calendar:

Week Of Tue, Dec 2 2013 – Fri, Dec 6 2013

Time

Event

Period

Unit

Forecast

Prior

Mon, Dec 2
08:58 Markit Manufacturing PMI

Nov

54.3

10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI

Nov

55.0

56.4

10:00 Construction spending

Oct

%

0.4

Tue, Dec 3
09:45 ISM-New York index

Nov

598.7

Wed, Dec 4
07:00 MBA 30-yr mortgage rate

w/e

%

4.48

07:00 Mortgage market index

w/e

449.6

08:15 ADP National Employment

Nov

k

170

130

08:30 International trade mm $

Oct

bl

-40.0

-41.8

10:00 ISM N-Mfg Bus Act

Nov

59.6

59.7

10:00 ISM N-Mfg PMI

Nov

55.1

55.4

Thu, Dec 5
08:30 Corporate profits

Q3

%

3.0

3.5

08:30 GDP

Q3

%

3.0

2.8

08:30 Jobless claims 4-wk avg

w/e

k

331.75

08:30 Initial Jobless Claims

w/e

k

320

316

08:30 Continued jobless claims

w/e

ml

2.810

2.776

10:00 Factory orders mm

Oct

%

-1.0

1.7

Fri, Dec 6
08:30 Consumption, adjusted

Oct

%

0.2

0.2

08:30 Unemployment rate mm

Nov

%

7.2

7.3

08:30 Non-farm payrolls

Nov

k

185

204

08:30 Personal income

Oct

%

0.3

0.5

08:30 Private Payrolls

Nov

k

180

212

09:55 U.Mich sentiment

Dec

76.0

75.1

15:00 Consumer credit

Oct

bl

14.50

13.74